Who will rule Turkey

Prime Minister and his Head of Intelligence

The arguments in the Turkish parliament about intelligence service seem to be taken from television mini series. War against terror involves agents, who infiltrate a terrorist organization. Occasionally such agents, believed to be loyal and true terrorists are ordered to commit acts of terror. Refusal may lead to exposure, consequently even if the agent remains alive, he or she becomes an useless spy. Now, if an agent engages in terror, is she immune from prosecution? Who grants the approval to act in this way and who is in charge of control? These dilemmas are usually discussed in close doors, certainly in a country like Turkey, not exactly a paradigm of government transparency. 

The public prosecutor opened a criminal investigation against no less a figure than Dr. Hakan Fidan, the head of national intelligence service (MİT), an appointee of Prime Minister Erdoğan with a rank of Undersecretary and against several other officials under him. The subject matter has been the Kurdish PKK, which is considered by Turkey a terrorist group and CKK its political arm. In response, the parliament enacted a new law, which allows the Prime Minister to grant immunity to MİT agents in exercise of their approved duties. The main opposition BDP stated that it will ask the Constitutional Court to cancel the new law.

The debate is much more than a legal bickering between factions in Government and Parliament. It represents deep power struggle among important forces that have shaped modern secular Turkey ruled by an Islamic party.

Fethullah Gülen

Fethullah Gülen is the head of a movement that exerts considerable religious, social and political power over Turkey and Turks over the world. He was the architect of making the Islamic AKP the ruling party in Turkey, and subsequently nominating Erdoğan,  its leader, the Prime Minister. Gülen followers are well established in AKP and in the Government. Presumably they maintain a forceful presence in the judiciary system.

Erdoğan's Turkey is a rather strange amalgam of nationalistic state, alliance with secular business, and moderate Islam. The state vision in its strict ethnic and language definitions is closer to right wing Poland between the wars than to Ottoman's Caliphate or even Ataturk conception of the country. Like Poland at that time, Turkey has difficulty in dealing with its sizable 20 percent minority, with facts of its recent history, and again like Poland it has imperialistic dreams toward small and weak neighbors. The alliance with business community is based on crony capitalism with ever growing disparity in distribution of national income. The Islamic foundation are more a political tool than real life force changing the secular Turkey into a religious country.

After the last elections, Turkey's relations with most of the countries around it, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Cyprus, Greece deteriorated significantly. Yet in the media an impression arose that Turkey became a regional – a word that probably Mr. Erdoğan dislikes – power and its Prime Minister a charismatic leader. It seems that Mr. Erdoğan believes that this is indeed the case and that support of Mr. Gülen is not crucial anymore. Mr. Gülen, a resident of Pennsylvania, is less impressed with the image of the Prime Minister. He probably considers him arrogant and unnecessarily argumentative. On the face of it, though, the difference in style and even minor opinions do not warrant such a grave step as public summoning and criminal investigation of the Head of Intelligence who is also a loyal confidant of the Prime Minister.

It may well be that a more important development is the reason for the recent showdown. The health situation of Mr. Erdoğan in detail is unknown. Officially he does not have cancer. Yet a second operation is not an event which necessarily implies excellent health. It may well be that a succession struggle is taking place. Ahmet Davutoglu the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Abdullah Gül the President are so far the best known contenders. Fethullah Gülen supports Abdullah Gül. He wants to remain the eminence grise who determines who will be the next Prime Minister. During the visit of Ahmet Davutoglu in the US, several American journalists wrote critically about the Gullen foundation. It appears that the timing and leaks are also a part of the ongoing struggle.

Fethullah Gülen was the only prominent Turkish religious leader who opposed to Gaza flotilla. Prime Minister Erdoğan and Foreign Minister Davutoglu aggressive stance against Israel proved to be a failure. It did not improve the relations of Turkey with other Muslim neighbors, in fact it worsened them. In maintaining good relations with Israel, Turkey had a leverage which it lost. Even the Palestinians did not become more eager to look for support under the wing of Turkey. After severing the ties with Israel Turkey became of no value to them. Israel used to have excellent relations with the Turkish military, because of that it probably did not maintain contacts with the Gülen foundation. Times are changing, it my be useful to consider this foundation a bridge for improving contacts with the AKP and the next Prime Minister.